Long-term vs. Short-term

Although poker is played in the moment, calculating and strategizing against the table hand-by-hand, it is the end result that is ultimately important. It is a minor celebration when a player takes down a $500 hand if they have lost several thousand prior.
Luck is an inevitable factor in Poker. Every player must concede that luck will run the table from time to time. But, ultimately skill will prevail. Only skill explains the familiar faces at final tables.
So how can you tell if you’re just getting lucky or if you are playing skillfully?
I suggest players keep track of their wins and losses equally. It is important to see when you are winning and how much you are actually profiting (based on prior losses). These numbers shouldn’t be averaged daily or weekly. Unless you play every day for several hours a day, you should only be taking monthly to quarterly averages.
Along with a profit/loss calculation, a player should be keeping track of why they have lost/won. What was the main factor? Be honest with yourself. Admit if it was just luck or perhaps you were spot on at reading your opponent. A player must learn to lie to their opponents without flinching, but do not lie to yourself.
The most accepted time range for keeping track of profits vs. losses is annually. Take those quarterly averages and plug them into one annual profit/loss number. This also allows a player a long enough term to properly analyze their true strengths and weaknesses.
Not every loss should be considered a weakness. Once again, make sure you are keeping track of why you lost. Did you make the right move and were sucked-out on? If so, consider it a loss, but not a weakness. On the reverse, not every win should be considered strength. Catching a river card is not skill. Admit you got lucky and move on.
As important as it is to keep track of overall profits, it is also vital that a player does not start basing their plays upon these numbers. Having bad streaks is part of the game. A player cannot fold pocket rockets pre-flop against an all-in just because they lost big money the day, week or whenever before and are afraid of getting sucked-out on, thus affecting their profit margin.
Remember, it is the long-term game that matters. When playing, focus on your skill and not the profit margin. Keeping track of the profit margin simply allows a player to see if their game is actually improving or if they are just having short-term successes; also, when and why this is happening.
The basic goal is to pin-point a player’s strengths and weaknesses. Get rid of his/her weaknesses and improve on the strengths. This sounds simple enough, but anyone who has sat at a live table understands that the pressure of the game is too much for some to bear.
Players, especially newer players, tend to get wrapped up in the short-term game and try to hit big right away. I have heard players complain many times that they haven’t caught any cards in the past hour.
I have sat at a table for several hours winning no more than $20. There have been months when I barely broke even and admittedly, other months I was nowhere near even.
Do not get caught up in a short-term success, enjoy it, but remember it is skill that prevails in the long-term. Also, do not let a suck-out upset you and throw you off your game. Just think that you made such a great move that the only way your opponent was able to win was with a suck-out. If you made a great read/play and were sucked-out on, shake it off and move forward.
A player has to be in it for the long-term game. A suck-out may knock you off the table. Then what? You cannot expect to place in the first tournament you play. Nor can you expect to profit your first time sitting at a live table.
Everyone, including the experts, will experience short-term streak losses, some of them devastating. What separates the men from the boys is being able to shake it off and continue forward.

Date: 3/3/10 Written and edited by: Fernando J. Chavarria

“You got to know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em, know when to walk away and know when to run.”
- Kenny Rogers