Long-term vs. Short-term

Although poker is played in the moment, calculating and strategizing against the table hand-by-hand, it is the end result that is ultimately important. It is a minor celebration when a player takes down a $500 hand if they have lost several thousand prior.
Luck is an inevitable factor in Poker. Every player must concede that luck will run the table from time to time. But, ultimately skill will prevail. Only skill explains the familiar faces at final tables.
So how can you tell if you’re just getting lucky or if you are playing skillfully?
I suggest players keep track of their wins and losses equally. It is important to see when you are winning and how much you are actually profiting (based on prior losses). These numbers shouldn’t be averaged daily or weekly. Unless you play every day for several hours a day, you should only be taking monthly to quarterly averages.
Along with a profit/loss calculation, a player should be keeping track of why they have lost/won. What was the main factor? Be honest with yourself. Admit if it was just luck or perhaps you were spot on at reading your opponent. A player must learn to lie to their opponents without flinching, but do not lie to yourself.
The most accepted time range for keeping track of profits vs. losses is annually. Take those quarterly averages and plug them into one annual profit/loss number. This also allows a player a long enough term to properly analyze their true strengths and weaknesses.
Not every loss should be considered a weakness. Once again, make sure you are keeping track of why you lost. Did you make the right move and were sucked-out on? If so, consider it a loss, but not a weakness. On the reverse, not every win should be considered strength. Catching a river card is not skill. Admit you got lucky and move on.
As important as it is to keep track of overall profits, it is also vital that a player does not start basing their plays upon these numbers. Having bad streaks is part of the game. A player cannot fold pocket rockets pre-flop against an all-in just because they lost big money the day, week or whenever before and are afraid of getting sucked-out on, thus affecting their profit margin.
Remember, it is the long-term game that matters. When playing, focus on your skill and not the profit margin. Keeping track of the profit margin simply allows a player to see if their game is actually improving or if they are just having short-term successes; also, when and why this is happening.
The basic goal is to pin-point a player’s strengths and weaknesses. Get rid of his/her weaknesses and improve on the strengths. This sounds simple enough, but anyone who has sat at a live table understands that the pressure of the game is too much for some to bear.
Players, especially newer players, tend to get wrapped up in the short-term game and try to hit big right away. I have heard players complain many times that they haven’t caught any cards in the past hour.
I have sat at a table for several hours winning no more than $20. There have been months when I barely broke even and admittedly, other months I was nowhere near even.
Do not get caught up in a short-term success, enjoy it, but remember it is skill that prevails in the long-term. Also, do not let a suck-out upset you and throw you off your game. Just think that you made such a great move that the only way your opponent was able to win was with a suck-out. If you made a great read/play and were sucked-out on, shake it off and move forward.
A player has to be in it for the long-term game. A suck-out may knock you off the table. Then what? You cannot expect to place in the first tournament you play. Nor can you expect to profit your first time sitting at a live table.
Everyone, including the experts, will experience short-term streak losses, some of them devastating. What separates the men from the boys is being able to shake it off and continue forward.

Date: 3/3/10 Written and edited by: Fernando J. Chavarria

“You got to know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em, know when to walk away and know when to run.”
- Kenny Rogers

Poker Spectrum

Poker is all about risk and the skill to measure that risk is invaluable to a player. The risk taken in poker can be seen as a spectrum. On one end is the person who will, give ‘er give ‘er to the river and on the other end is the person who will, get rid of ‘er before the river. The worst thing a player can do is define themselves as always one extreme or the other. I emphasize greatly that a player does not want to be chasing runner-runner hands, but a player also cannot expect to always make their hand on the flop.
What if a player has a flush draw and straight draw with two over cards and is up against bottom pair? If the pot is a decent size (meaning the pot –size is over fifty percent of how much is in your stack), this may be a good time to chase. If possible, a player wants to use acting and betting to chase their opponent’s weak hand out immediately.
The idea is to make your opponent think you have a stronger hand, which shouldn’t be too hard if they are holding a weak pair. They’ll fold and you won’t have to chase. If they call, not too bad either, you have plenty of outs and are looking at profiting pretty well.
Regardless if the odds are in your favor or not, you must always be ready for a caller when betting. The worse thing a player can do is get upset if their bluff is called. A player needs to always look strong, even when they are forced to show a bluff. Acting is important, but disappointment is one persona a player never ever wants to show.
So what is the happy medium of the spectrum? There isn’t one. A player must always be flexible. Do not be the person at the table who only makes moderate bets because you are afraid of committing your chips. Also, do not be the player who thinks that the only way to win a hand is to go all in. Be flexible.
If there is ten dollars in the pot, do not bet $50 to see if your opponent/s will fold. Betting $10-$15 dollars can have the same effect and if you receive a check-raise you can get away with little regret.
The first thing I make known when I sit at a table is that I will defend my hand! If I lose a hand I’ll make a comment that insinuates that my opponent played poorly. For example, as the dealer pushed the pot to my opponent, I told her that she was supposed to give the chips to the good players. Suddenly my opponent felt he had to justify his hand. I didn’t care and didn’t respond.
It is fine to make comments, but do not get into an argument with someone at the table. This shows poor character and zero discipline.
Learning how much to bet based on the pot-size and your read on the strength of your opponents hand is what will allow you maintain control of the poker spectrum. This is the great beginning to avoiding tilt and learning when and how to bluff your opponents.


Dated: 2/21/10 Written and edited by: Fernando J. Chavarria